US Open: Breaking it Down

The last Grand Slam of the year is upon us, at pretty much the same time as Hurricane Irene. The rain is lashing NYC now as I write, but it might have timed its entry a day too early to spoil the fun at Flushing Meadows. Hopefully, the only storms we get to see over the next few days are the ones brewed by the players on court. Here’s a quick breakdown of the draws and my shot at everybody’s favourite game – guess the winner.

The Men:

There is talk of an unsettled look about the men’s side this year, about the possibility of familiar faces not reaching familiar places. Federer and Nadal are not in good form, Djokovic finally seems fatigued, and Murray has always flattered to deceive. Ideal opportunity for some fresh opportunists to break through? Ha! Fat chance, I say!

First Quarter: The Djoker has a relatively smooth run early on, which should give him more time to get into rhythm after that retirement in Cincy. Dolgopolov might appear in the 4th round, and Monfils/Berdych in the quarters, but by then the Man of the Year should have hit top gear to see him through. Novak Djokovic.

Second Quarter: Fedex has had a couple of disheartening losses recently, and there is only so far that the confidence of one great match in Roland Garros can take you in a year. I see his remarkable streak of 29 straight GS quarter-final appearances coming to an end, at the hands of Tomic in the 3rd round, maybe? At the other end of the quarter, Fish is busy asserting himself as the best male American tennis player around, and he’ll get all the home support he needs for a late-career breakthrough run. Mardy Fish.

Third Quarter: DelPo is still slowly lumbering around trying to get some momentum into his comeback from injury, Soderling seems to be quietly winding down his aspirations for GS title contender, and Feliciano Lopez remains everybody’s favourite blue-eyed boy but never a favourite for the quarter. Which leaves only the grouchy Scot to make the best use of the momentum gained from winning the last Masters 1000 event. Andy Murray.

Fourth Quarter: The defending champion is back at, arguably, his weakest GS event. But he will be encouraged by a relatively comfortable draw. Ljubicic in the 3rd, Melzer in the 4th, and Ferrer in the QF are encounters he should win, even if a couple of them go the way of his typical scrapping fights. Rafael Nadal.

And then: Fish is stopped by Djokovic, who is on a juggernaut by then. Murray beats Nadal, who is disturbed by a few end-of-season niggles by then. In the final, Djokovic beats Murray, to reaffirm one of the best seasons ever had by any player on the ATP, and Murray is left to ponder on what might have been, again.

 

The Women:

Predicting the women’s draw has always been a roll of the dice, but could this event be slightly different? The re-emergence of a couple of veterans might contribute to that, one from injury, and the other from poor form. In the end, the tournament could turn out to be a seniors vs juniors affair.

First Quarter: Li Na has had a fantastic year, but has tailed off in the US hardcourt season. Notwithstanding the fact she had a similar slump before the French Open, this one might be irreversible for the year. Wozniacki has felt the pressure of justifying her No. 1 ranking all year long, and you feel something’s going to give soon. Either a confirmation of her ranking, or a slippery slide downwards. I like to think this US open will contribute to the former. After all, she’s had a few good runs at Flushing Meadows before, and the sporting success of her new beau Rory McIllroy is bound to rub off on her. Caroline Wozniacki.

Second Quarter: Azarenka has had a solid GS year and has lived up to her ranking right through, but the Gods have conspired against her by putting Serena Williams in her path as early as the 3rd round. Serena is hungry, with a point to prove, playing at home, and fresh off a WTA victory. That spells bad news for the others in the quarter too, be it Jankovic or Schiavone. Serena Williams.

Third Quarter: Sharapova should breeze through this one. The likes of Penetta, Peng and Pironkova shouldn’t trouble her. Kvitova possibly awaits her in the QF for a rematch of the Wimbledon championship, but a repeat of the result is unlikely here, with Kvitova slightly off the boil, and Sharapova red-hot at the moment. Maria Sharapova.

Fourth Quarter: Anything can happen here, with the likes of Zvonareva, Lisicki, Cibulkova, Bartoli and Petrova lurking around. Given the volatility of the characters, I am going for the quietly solid Stosur, who has been showing signs of life recently, to make a move here. This is, of course, assuming that Venus Williams in her unfamiliar unseeded position is upset by Lisicki in the 2nd round. Samantha Stosur.

And then: Serena cruises past Wozniacki, providing more fodder to the No.1 debate. Sharapova outclasses Stosur in an exhibition of passion overcoming steadiness. In the final, Serena will be desperate to cap her comeback with a GS title. But Sharapova will be as desperate to avoid a Wimbledon repeat. In the end, Sharapova might have that additional bit of desperation to win in 3 desperately close sets. It should be a humdinger.

Fall from Grace

An extended Test series of 4 – 5 matches, that rare event in today’s crowded international calendar, serves as a great illustration of a cricketer’s or cricket team’s ebbs and flows in fortune. There is sufficient time for a storyline to develop, several, in fact. One batsman emerges as a bulwark for his team, another finds he can’t score a run to save his life, a bowler discovers a new bunny, strengths and weaknesses are compared, patterns emerge. Sometimes, when the pattern becomes obvious pretty early on, the rest of the series just grinds on remorselessly to the obvious conclusion, demonstrating how cruel the Test arena can be with no place to hide. As it was with the India-England Test series.

This was a highly awaited series between two evenly matched sides at the top of the rankings, but it ended up as one of the most lop-sided in recent times. To be honest, they were never evenly matched, but no one knew that to begin with, and hence the initial matches had more than a semblance of a contest, with both teams playing in ignorance of the other’s relative strengths and weaknesses. But once they realised the gulf between the two teams, the Indian team fell away disastrously, and there was just no coming back. And the increasingly divergent paths taken by the two teams through the series was watched with a sense of incredulity, irrespective of who you were supporting.

1st Test, Lords: Teams ranked 1 and 2 are fighting it out, with 2 playing host. There’s excitement in the air, the series is too close to call, and the teams oblige by playing some hard-fought cricket. The partnership between Broad and Prior in the England second innings turns out to be pivotal, proving to be the difference between a target of 460 and a target of 340. Even the latter might have been too much for India, but that rubbing-your-nose-in partnership provides some much needed momentum for England.

2nd Test, Nottingham: England have been the better side in the first side, but the series is still balanced. India has a recent history of always playing catch-up and playing it well, say the experts. So the world waits and watches. And we watch open-mouthed as India actually seems to turn it on, taking a first innings lead with 6 wickets in hand. This is really champaigne stuff, we begin telling ourselves. Till Broad runs in to take a devastating hat-trick, and keep the Indian lead down to 67. For me, the hat-trick was the key event in the entire series, given the match circumstances and the stage of the series it came in. And a hat-trick, almost by definition, seems to be always associated with a winning side, providing that enormous boost in team morale and confidence. How many hat-tricks have been taken in a losing cause, I wonder? The England batsmen immediately follow it up with the first of what would be a recurring feature in the series – a 500 plus score, and a pattern begins to emerge.

3rd Test, Edgbaston: Saurav Ganguly’s confidence in the Indian team coming back to square the series 2-2 begins to sound like one of his erstwhile team pep talks, rather than the balanced view of a cricket analyst. But the determined Indian fan continues to watch with hope in his heart, only to see his worst nightmare come true. The batsmen are worked over, the bowlers look club-level, the fielders look insipid, the freshly arrived Sehwag gathers a king pair, and India crashes to a defeat by an innings and a whopping margin. It’s hard and brutal Test cricket, with only one team in the match right through. We realise the concept of ‘key moments’ no longer apply to this series, because one way traffic has commenced. An interesting aspect is the lack of runs from Dravid in this match, the only match with meagre returns for him, in a series which he otherwise dominated. And this might be the truest, and saddest, picture painted of Dravid’s immense contribution to the series. For all his batting heroics and commendable pride shown right through, his exploits only served to lessen the margin of defeats for India, nothing else. And that is just a statement on the nature of the game, and not on the individual brilliance he exhibited all through the series, except Edgbaston.

4th Test, The Oval: Do we really need to extend this farce, seems to be the predominant thought. At least, the Indians seem to think so, jaded in their mind, and exposed by the cruelty of Test cricket. They plod on, Dravid continues to dig in, Bell makes perhaps the easiest double hundred ever, and even rain intervening for a major portion of one day cannot stop England from completing another innings defeat. Tendulkar comes within 9 runs of completing ‘that’ landmark, which thankfully will now not be remembered as having been achieved in one of the worst Test series for India ever. Small mercy! Team 1 slips to 3, while looking far worse. Team 2 moves up to 1. England are surprised at the margin, but delighted. India are just tired, and relieved it’s all over.

Things can change dramatically in a Test series which spans across months. Drastic momentum shifts happen, perspectives change, reputations are made and lost, rankings are squandered and attained. During the second Test, commentator Ravi Shastri made an ill-advised remark on how England were jealous of India’s No.1 ranking, which led to a minor furore of its own. A couple of years down the line, it’ll be hard to imagine this kind of comment was made in the middle of a humiliating 0-4 whitewash of India. It’s been that kind of series.